China and the climate after COP26

This Briefing Paper maps China's greenhouse gas emissions and the country's role in climate change, and reviews the Chinese authorities' climate ambitions and action plan to achieve carbon neutrality.

China's emissions are the single most important factor for the future of the climate. It currently emits more carbon dioxide than the EU and all other OECD countries combined. Unlike other leading economies, Chinese emissions increased even during the pandemic and are expected to continue to rise until 2030, according to the authorities' official climate policy.

Dependence on coal is the main source of these emissions. To be sure, China has recently pledged to stop financing coal power abroad and is investing heavily in green energy. But at the same time, it is expanding its own coal power, even though it already burns more than half of the world's coal. Furthermore, domestic factors rather than exports to Western consumer societies are behind China's huge emissions.

Like many other countries, China intends to become carbon neutral. However, the question is whether Beijing's timetable for this is realistic, as emissions will grow for many years to come.

Despite the fact that developments in China are absolutely crucial to climate change, Beijing's actions are given little space in the Swedish climate policy debate. Even less does this fateful issue appear in Sweden's climate policy, which is both a rejection of our own approach and a threat to the climate.

If you don't have a China strategy, you cannot be said to have a climate strategy.

Briefing paper #1 China and the climate after COP26 - Jojje Olsson (pdf)